Latest no-deal notice forecasts Northern Ireland to be hit hard and food prices likely to rise

The government has issued a bleak warning over a no-deal Brexit, estimating the UK economy could be 9% weaker in the long run, businesses in Northern Ireland might go bust and food prices will increase.

In an official document only published after repeated demands by the former Conservative MP Anna Soubry, the government also revealed it was behind on contingency planning for a third of “critical projects” in relation to business and trade.

The economy would be 6%-9% smaller over the next 15 years than it otherwise might have been, in the event of no deal, in line with Bank of England forecasts.

The flow of goods through Dover would be “very significantly reduced for months”.

With 30% of food coming from the EU, prices are likely to increase and there is a risk that panic buying might create shortages.

Only six of the 40 planned international trade agreements have been signed.

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