Assertion windfall can help fund £20bn injection ‘treats public as fools’, says Tory MP

Theresa May’s promise of £400m extra in weekly NHS spending within five years has been overshadowed by scepticism among experts and her own backbenchers over her claim it can be financed through a windfall delivered by Brexit.

Ahead of a major speech by the prime minister in which she will pledge a £20bn annual real-terms NHS funding increase by 2023-24, May was ridiculed for arguing that some of the money would come from a so-called Brexit dividend.

What is a Brexit dividend?

Related: Why claims of Brexit dividend for NHS will raise Remainers’ anger

The Brexit dividend tosh was expected but treats the public as fools. Sad to see Govt slide to populist arguments rather than evidence on such an important issue. This will make it harder to have a rational debate about the ‘who & how’ of funding & sharing this fairly.

As a GP, I‘m happy to see more money for our health & social care. We need to spend more as our population ages. But we must be honest about how we are going to pay. There is no evidence yet that there will be a “Brexit dividend” - so it’s tax rises, more borrowing or both

Fantastic news on NHS funding - a down payment on the cash we will soon get back from our EU payments. #TakeBackControl #BrexitDividend

Related: Boris Johnson’s £350m claim is devious and bogus. Here’s why | John Lichfield

Between 2010-11 and 2016-17, health spending increased by an average of 1.2% above inflation and increases are due to continue in real terms at a similar rate until the end of this parliament. This is far below the annual inflation-proof growth rate that the NHS enjoyed before 2010 of almost 4% stretching back to the 1950s. As budgets tighten, NHS organisations have been struggling to live within their means. In the financial year 2015-16, acute trusts recorded a deficit of £2.6bn. This was reduced to £800m last year, though only after a £1.8bn bung from the Department of Health, which shows the deficit remained the same year on year.

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