No-deal Brexit would trigger lengthy UK recession, warns S&P

Credit agency warns of property price falls, unemployment doubling and inflation spiking in latest grim forecast

Britain’s economy will suffer rising unemployment and falling household incomes that would trigger a recession should Theresa May fail to secure a deal to prevent the UK crashing out of the European Union next year, according to analysis by the global rating agency Standard & Poor’s.

Property prices would slump and inflation would spike to more than 5% in a scenario that S&P said had become more likely in recent months following deadlock with Brussels over a post-Brexit deal.

Unemployment would rise from current all-time low of 4% to 7.4% by 2020 – a rate last seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis;

house prices would likely fall by 10% over two years;

household incomes would be £2,700 lower a year after leaving without a deal;

inflation would rise, peaking at 4.7% in mid-2019;

London office prices could fall by 20% over two to three years, similar to the decline following the 2008 financial crash.

Related: A no-deal Brexit would shorten the odds on a long UK recession

Continue reading...

from Top stories | The Guardian https://ift.tt/2zdcU5h