Credit agency warns of property price falls, unemployment doubling and inflation spiking in latest grim forecast
Britain’s economy will suffer rising unemployment and falling household incomes that would trigger a recession should Theresa May fail to secure a deal to prevent the UK crashing out of the European Union next year, according to analysis by the global rating agency Standard & Poor’s.
Property prices would slump and inflation would spike to more than 5% in a scenario that S&P said had become more likely in recent months following deadlock with Brussels over a post-Brexit deal.
Unemployment would rise from current all-time low of 4% to 7.4% by 2020 – a rate last seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis;
house prices would likely fall by 10% over two years;
household incomes would be £2,700 lower a year after leaving without a deal;
inflation would rise, peaking at 4.7% in mid-2019;
London office prices could fall by 20% over two to three years, similar to the decline following the 2008 financial crash.
Related: A no-deal Brexit would shorten the odds on a long UK recession
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